Stagffalion of Fed’s mind

Of the US Federal Reserve President of Jerome Powell Press conference after the meetingThe topic of tariffs – more special their impact on prices – was repeated.

“Everyone I know predict a significant increase in inflation in the coming months of tariffs because someone has to pay for the tariffs,” Powell said. “And some of them will fall to the end user.”

Of course, the latest economic data are optimistic, which suggests that the US economy was able – and could still escape the tariffs, mostly unharmed.

In May, better than expected Added 139,000 jobs And the unemployment rate is unchanged at 4.2%. Consumer sentiment in early June It was much more optimistic than forecast, according to a study by the University of Michigan. And most importantly, Inflation in May – Based on the consumer prices index – marked only by 0.1% for the month, more than estimated.

But this series of positive data may need to thank the slow process by which tariffs move through the economy.

“It takes some time to make their way through the distribution chain to the end user. A good example of this would be goods sold to retailers today, may have been imported a few months ago before the rates are imposed. So we start seeing some effects and expect to see more of them in the coming months,” Powell said.

And although Fed officials are currently “no signs of a weakening of the US economy, Powell admitted that growth would slow down” eventually. ” In other words, Stagflation – the toxic combination of higher prices and more slow growth – can be an opportunity in the coming months.

The song “I got the summer of my mind“I went viral in 2022” I have received Stagflation on my mind “can be FED – and market observers – the ears of this summer.

The US Central Bank owns tariffs, sees two abbreviations
US Federal Reserve on Wednesday is stored interest rates in range between 4.25%-4.5%where it is from December. Along with the percentage decision, the Committee pointed out, through its carefully observed “storyline”, that two cuts until the end of 2025 were still on the table. Earlier on Wednesday, President Donald Trump said Calling it “stupid”.

Fede for Inflation and Reduces Growth Prognosis
Inflation in the United States, measured by the price price index for personal consumption, will increase over 3% in 2025, according to an updated Fed forecast. The Central Bank in March expected PCE to reach 2.8%. PCE entered the only 2.1% in AprilS The Fed also sees economic growth to slow down to 1.4% this year, which is more than a higher estimate of 1.7%. In combination, both forecasts point to Early signs of stagfaltiaS

Oil markets and prices were equal in the US
American stocks Completed around the plain on WednesdayS Thehe S&P 500 slippery 0.03%, The Dow Jones Industrial Average Close 0.1% down but Nasdaq Composite raised 0.13%. Oil prices were also slightly changed. Region Stoxx 600 index Lose 0.36%. Thehe FTSE 100However, tossed 0.11%as data shows that annual inflation in the United Kingdom comes in Expected 3.4% in MayS

Trump says he hasn’t decided on Iran strikes
For a second time in two days, Trump on Wednesday Met their national security team in the White House Against the backdrop of the conflict in Israel-Iran. The closed door collection took place as Trump insisted that he had not yet decided whether to order a US strike on Iran. On the same day, the US Ambassador to Israel Mike Hukabi said the evacuation flights and the departure of cruise ships were organized for US citizens who want to leave Israel.

(Pro) “Deep impact” on the oil market: JPMORGAN
The current leap of oil prices due to the conflict of the mood in the Middle East may not lead to long -term price shock, according to historical data analyzed by JpMorganS However, the change of regime in Iran as a result of American or Israeli military action may be “deep -impact“The bank told the world market.

These are the adhesive points holding a trade deal in the US-EU

The US and European Union is running out of time to reach a deal on trade rates – and analysts say several key adhesive points can make the agreement impossible.

Negotiations are slow, as both the US and the EU are temporarily reduced by the obligations to each other until July 9. If a deal is not negotiated so far, Complete reciprocal tariffs for imports of 50% for goods in the EU and the block Widespread are ready to come into force.

“We’re talking, but I still don’t feel they are offering an honest deal,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday as additional hopes for the upcoming agreement.

So what holds things between the two countries that had a relationship worth EUR 1.68 trillion ($ 1.93 trillion) in 2024?