Stunning reversal of the wealth of the historic elections in Canada

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Jessica Murphy

BBC News

Reporting fromVaughn, Ontario
Nadine Yusif

BBC News

Reporting fromCambridge and London, Ontario
The ghetto images composite image showing on the left, conservative leader Pierre Polyver, who holds his hand while talking in a microphone at a rally, with a Canadian flag behind him. To the right of Liberal Mark Carney, also speaking in a microphone. Ghetto images

At a rally in London, Ontario, on Friday, the crowd whistled when Mark Carney presented his main line of the campaign for the existential threat that Canada encountered from his neighbor.

“President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us,” the liberal leader warned.

“Never,” the supporters called. Many neighborhoods of Canadian flags glued to ice sticks on ice.

Similar levels of passion were also displayed in the Union Hall, where Pierre Polyver welcomed enthusiastic supporters in the Toronto area earlier during the week.

The conservative leader has attracted large crowds to rallies across the country, where “bring him home” is a call for a weapon: both to vote to change the government and nod a wave of Canadian patriotism in front of tariff threats in the United States.

In the last hours of a 36-day campaign, Donald Trump’s shadow exceeds everything. The winner of the Monday election will probably be the party, which can convince voters that they have a plan on how to deal with the US President.

National polls suggest that the liberals maintained a narrow lead entering the last section.

Watch: What is really interested in Canadians – beyond Trump’s noise

However, Trump is not the only factor in the game – he was only mentioned once in Poiliev’s speech.

The conservative leader focuses more on voters, dissatisfied with what he calls a “lost liberal decade”, promising a change from the government, which accuses housing and the slow economy, as well as the abuse of social issues such as crime and fantany crisis.

His terrain resonates with voters such as Eric and Carrie Gioneta from Barry, Ontario. They had two daughters in the mid-1920s and said they were attending their first political rally.

“We are quite financially safe – but I’m worried about them,” said Eric Gioneta. While he and his wife could buy the first home while they were young, he said, “There is no perspective,” their children will be able to do the same.

“I’m excited to be here,” said Carrie Gioneta. “I hope.”

Voter dissatisfaction has helped opposition parties to sweep the governments from power in democracies around the world. Canada looked almost certain to follow the example.

Last year, the Conservatives held a 20 -point lead in national surveys over the ruling liberals for months. Poiliev’s future as the next Prime Minister of the country seemed baked.

At that time, in early 2025, at the beginning of 2025, a series of political landscape appeared in early 2025: Justin Trudeau’s resignation, Carney’s subsequent rise to leader and Prime Minister; And Trump’s return to the White House with the subsequent threats and rates.

By the time the elections were called in mid -March, Carney’s liberals were electoral with cervix and neckline with conservatives, and by the beginning of April they were slightly ahead, national studies suggest.

It was a stunning turn of riches. It seems dead and buried, now the liberals believe that they could win fourth consecutive elections and even a majority in parliament.

Carney presents himself as a person who is most ready to welcome this critical moment -a stable central banker who helped the Shepherd Canada economy during the 2008 financial crisis and later, the United Kingdom through Brexit.

For the conservative voter Gwendolin Slaver, 69 years old, from Summerside in Prince Edward Island, his appeal is “disturbing”.

“Many people think Mark Carney is some kind of messiah,” she said. “This is the same party, he is one person. And he won’t change anything.”

For Carney supporters, they see a strong resumption and stability, which reassured their Trump threats from steep tariffs and repeated suggestions that the country should become the 51st state of the United States -although the president commented more and more during Canada during the campaign.

“I am very impressed with the stability and serious process of Mark Carney’s thought,” said Mike Brennan of Kitchener, Ontario as he was in line to meet the liberal leader in a cafe in Cambridge, about an hour outside Toronto.

Brennan is a “liberal all life”, which initially did not plan to vote for the party in these elections because of his dislike for Trudeau.

The departure of former Prime Minister Trudeau, who has become increasingly unpopularly popular in his decade, has released a “massive pressure valve,” said Shachi Kurl, President of the Angus Reed Institute, an organization for a non-profit public opinion.

“All these angry liberals who either park their voices with (left) NDP, or park their voices with the conservatives, are starting to rethink themselves,” she said.

At that time, more unconcerned liberals and other progressive voters began to migrate to the liberals of Karni, led by Trump, the “main character” in these elections, said G -Ja Kurl.

“The threats, the conversations to annex, all this was a huge motivator to the left of the voters of the center.”

He worked in favor of Carney, with the threats of Trump’s tariffs to the political neophyte – he is the first Prime Minister to have never held a chosen state position – the chance to listen to his job during the campaign.

Trump’s announcement in late March about global taxes on foreign car imports allowed Carney to withdraw from the trail and take over the prime minister’s mantle by calling the president and meeting with US cabinet ministers.

He has never been tested in a grueling federal election campaign, with his relentless trips, demands for high pressure for retail policy and daily media control. Still, along the campaign path and in the high -bet debate with party leaders, it is believed that he performed well.

In contrast, Poilievre is a veteran politician and a polished performer. But at the shifting political position, it seems that the Conservatives are struggling to find their foundation by turning their message as Canada is broken into the First Canada.

Poilievre had to repel criticism of political rivals that he was Trump Light, with his fighting style, his vows to complete “awakened ideology” and a willingness to absorb the Global Elite.

“I have a completely different story from Donald Trump,” He has saidS

Watch, “We’re not Americans” – but what does it mean to be Canadian?

More about the Canadian elections:

The Canadians have historically voted either in conservative or liberal governments, but the smaller parties – such as the NDR or Block Quebeco, a sovereign party that manages only candidates in the Quebec province – has formed an official opposition in the past.

In this campaign, they both fall out and face the opportunity to lose a number of places in the House of Commons, while anxious voters turn to two major political parties.

If liberals and conservatives manage to receive over 38% of the unit of votes on a national scale, as the polls suggest, this will be the first time it has happened in 1975.

The announcement from the NDR – which helped to support the minority liberals in the last government – in the last days of the campaign, it is to vote strategically.

“You can make the difference between Mark Carney to get a super majority or send enough new Democrats to Ottawa so that we can fight to protect the things you are interested in,” said leader Jaget Singh earlier this week.

The campaign also emphasized the purulent divisions by regional lines.

With much of the campaign, dominated by US and Canada relations and trade war, many questions – climate, immigration, radical reconciliation – are on the back.

Even when campaigns focused on other policies, the discussion focuses on the country’s economic future.

Both champions agree with broad priority strikes: the need to rotate the US addiction; the development of oil, gas and mining sector; protection of workers affected by tariffs; and increased defense costs.

But they do not agree who is best to lead Canada forward, especially when so much is embedded.

“It’s time for experience, not experiments,” Carney told her supporters in London.

The message about closing Poilievre was: “We can choose a change on Monday. We can take control of our lives and build a bright future.”

Additional reporting by Ali Abbas Ahmadi

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