The new South Korea president has a Trump -shaped crisis

The new president of South Korea, Lee J-Mung, has secured a stormy victory, but his honeymoon will hardly continue the day.

The former leader of the opposition does not enjoy the two -month transitional period, which is usually provided to new leaders, so they can build their team and hit their vision for the country.

Instead, he immediately took office to fill the hole left by the former president’s impeachment, Ion Suk Youol, who tried last December and failed to bring the country to martial law.

Choosing Lee, with almost 50% of the vote, the South Koreans fiercely rejected the military dictatorship that was almost forced to them. The Lee campaign of the promise that it will strengthen the democracy of South Korea and unite the country after separation and stormy six months.

But it will have to wait. First, he has a crisis with Donald Trump’s formation.

In the coming months, Trump has the power to destabilize South Korea’s economy, its security and its variable relations with North Korea.

The South Koreans were alarmed when Trump hit 25% rates for all Korean imports in April after hitting the country with aggressive tariffs for his main industries – steel and cars. They suggested that they were longtime military allies since the Korean War days and that there was a free trade agreement with the United States would spare them.

If these tariffs come into force, “they could cause an economic crisis,” said an experienced adviser to Lee’s Democratic Party, Moon Chung-in.

Prior to Trump’s reports, South Korea’s economy had already slowed. The chaos of military law further restricted him. Then, in the first quarter of this year, it was concluded. The repair of this is the number one request for the voters, even if they fixed their dressed democracy.

But without president, the conversations with Trump are in detention. They cannot be delayed anymore.

And in these negotiations, there are much more than the economy of South Korea.

The United States is currently guaranteed the security of South Korea by promising to protect itself with both conventional and nuclear weapons, if they were attacked by its nuclear weapons, North Korea. As part of this deal, there are 28,500 US troops in the country.

Still, Trump made it clear that he did not plan to distinguish between trade and security in negotiations with South Korea, signaling that Seoul did not pull his weight into any area.

In a publication on his social platform for the truth in April, Trump said that during the initial tariff conversations with South Korea, he “discussed the payment for the great military protection we provide,” calling it “beautiful and effective shopping at a counter”.

This approach makes Seoul uniquely vulnerable.

Evans Revere, a former senior American diplomat in Seoul, is afraid of a crisis. “For the first time in our lives, we have a US president who does not have a moral and strategic duty to Korea.”

In his first term as President Trump asked the value of the US forces in Korea and threatened to withdraw them unless Seoul pays more to have them. It seems that this time he will require more money.

Seoul may not want to pay more, but he can afford. A greater problem is that Trump’s calculations and the Ministry of Defense seem to have changed. This is no longer just for money. Washington’s main priority now in Asia is not just to stop North Korea from attacking south, but also contains China’s military ambitions in the region and against Taiwan.

Last year, a senior US defense official Elbridge Colby said South Korea will have to take “a huge responsibility for its own self -defense against North Korea” so the United States may be ready to fight China.

One of the possibilities is that the troops located here will focus on restricting China. Another Conducted by several US Defense Officers last monthis that thousands of soldiers will be removed from the peninsula and redistributed and that Seoul’s military will also have to play a role in deterring Beijing.

Not only can this put South Korea in dangerous military difficulty, but it will also create a diplomatically difficult.

President Lee, who is historically skeptical of the Korea Union with the United States, wants to use his presidency to improve relations with China, a powerful neighbor and a sales partner of South Korea. He has said several times that South Korea should remain out of conflict between China and Taiwan.

“We have to keep our distance from a continent in China Taiwan. We can get along with both,” he said during the television debate last month.

Political adviser, G -N -Moon, who was once a national security advisor, reappeared Lee’s concerns. “We are worried about the fact that America has abandoned us, but at the same time we worry about not being included in the American strategy to contain and surround China,” he said. “If the US threatens us, we can release (forces),” he said.

For G -N -Rvere, the former US diplomat, this combination of Lee, Trump and China threatens to create the “perfect storm”. “The two leaders can be on many different pages and this can be a recipe for problematic relationships. If this is played, it would undermine peace and stability in Northeast Asia.”

In Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un will undoubtedly be observed closely, wanting to exploit the shifting land. His nuclear weapon program is more dangerous than ever, and nothing or no one has been able to persuade him to turn him over – including Donald Trump, who during his first term was the first US president to ever meet with the North Korean leader.

As the return to the office Trump indicated that he would like to resume the conversations with Kim, which ended without an agreement in 2019. There is a real concern in Seoul that this time the couple may make a deal that is very bad for South Korea.

The fear is that Trump will take the “America First” approach and ask Kim to stop producing his intercontinental ballistic missiles that threaten the continental US without dealing with the multiple short -distance nuclear weapons aimed at Seoul. And in return, Kim could ask for a high price.

Kim has a far more lever than in 2019. He has more nuclear warheads, his weapons more advanced and the sanctions that had to put pressure on his regime, almost did not collapse, thanks to a large extent to Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader provides Kim Economic and Military Support in exchange for North Korea’s assistance in the fight against war in Ukraine.

Therefore, this gives Kim the cover of making more requests to the United States. He could ask Trump to accept North Korea as a nuclear weapon country and agree to a deal to reduce the number of Pyongyang’s weapons rather than getting rid of them. Another of his requests may be the United States to remove some of the security provided by South Korea, including troops.

“North Korea is already in the driver’s seat. The only curve is how much risk President Trump will take,” said Sydney Syiler, who is involved in the 2019 negotiations by the United States. “The idea that there may be some withdrawal of troops (included in a deal) is really not as intrusive.”

SEILER stressed that the United States “would” not leave South Korea in the dust “, but advised the new South Korea president to” connect with Trump at the beginning “and be clear that they expect to be part of any process if the conversations take place.

The new president has to move quickly on all fronts, adding G -n Revere, arguing that Lee’s first homework assignment should be to come up with a list of 10 reasons why South Korea is an indispensable partner and why US dollars are well spent; Causes that can convince skeptical and transactional Trump.

An Ace Card South Korea hopes to play is its shipbuilding. It builds more vessels than any other rural bar China, which is now the dominant ship of the ship and the home of the largest naval fleet. This is a frightening perspective for the United States, whose own industry and fleet are in decline.

Last month, I visited South Korea’s leading shipyard in the South coast – the largest in the world – where the Hyundai Heavy Industries builds 40-50 new ships a year, including naval destroyers. Sturdy cranes, cut into metal leaves, creating vessels the size of small villages.

Seoul hopes he can use this expertise to build, repair and maintain warships for the United States, and in the process he convinces Washington that he is a valuable partner.

“The difficulties to ship US influence their national security,” said Yong Wu Maan, head of the Hyundai Navy and Ship Department. “This is one of the strongest cards to negotiate with.”

In his campaign for President Lee J-Mung he said he did not want to rush into any agreements with Trump. Now he can quickly find himself without this luxury.