Tourium protests are much more than the fate of Istanbul Mayor

Under the pungent smell of tear gas tear gas in Istanbul, there is a hint of something else – a breath of panic by the longtime leader of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

One of his rivals is placed behind bars – so far, so familiar.

But the Ekrem Prison Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul, suggests that President Erdogan is shaken – and he may have gone too far. The Opposition Republican People’s Party of the Mayor (CHP), which calls huge crowds on the streets, is certainly hoping.

Ekrem Imamoglu – It always turned out to be clever, even when preparing to be detained – is the main rival of Turkey’s increasingly auto -auto -auto leader. He could replace him in the presidential election, which should be held until 2028 – assuming that he is free to challenge them.

But this is much more than a dispute over the fate of the mayor of Istanbul – charismatic, although he is.

Freedom and democracy are constantly eroded in the era of Erdogan. Many see this as a chance to call and stop the descent into all autocrats – if it’s not too late.

And they go out every night, taking advantage of the police for riots and their tears and rubber bullets, a ban on demonstrations, the closure of the road and the bridge and the risk of detention.

More than 1000 people have been detained so far – in just 5 days – and the number. This is an indication of how easy it is to arrest here.

Turkey claims that democracy is functioning – and at nominal value it is so. There are elections. Turnout is usually high – the Turks value their right to go to the ballot box and throw their newsletter. Voting is largely fair, on the day itself.

The problem is what happens away from the polling stations.

Opposition politicians can be in prison. The critics were frightened. The protesters arrested. The media is largely controlled by the government. Tweet, who makes fun of the president, can land you in a cell. At the time when the election day comes, there are tsunami of pro -government reflection and the opposition struggles to consider.

Ekrem imamoglu is the type of politician who can cross all this and reach voters. He is healthy and elected mayor of Istanbul three times. He is now accused of assigning, taking bribery and managing a criminal organization.

If convicted, he may be banned from standing in the presidential race. He has already appealed a previous sentence and a sentence of two years in prison for insulting elections.

Turkey insists that its courts are independent and simply follow the law. Human rights activists here and independent analysts make fun of this idea.

The campaign group, Human Rights Watch, said the mayor’s detention, along with about 100 other municipal officials and politicians, was “a politically motivated move to stifle legal political activities.” In the past, it criticized “politicized decisions of the courts” in Turkey.

In an X publication where he has 9.6 million followers, Imamoglu said the case against him is a “black spot of our democracy”, adding “I stand tall. I will never worship.”

Erdogan may be afraid of this, at the age of 71, an opponent who is more than 53 years old, also appeals to conservative Turkish voters and is ready for a long fight.

So, what is happening now?

Protests can pick up speed and continue to spread. This will be a serious challenge for Erdogan. How long before his highly armed security forces have been decaying even more? How long before someone loses their lives to protest? There is a break for every mode of a strong person and he can come with a bullet.

The opposition intends to maintain pressure and demonstrations.

But after his two decades at the top, Erdogan still has many loyal supporters. He controls almost all power levers and seems to be determined to hang out. He will deal with the demonstrations of leakage over time.

The president and his ruling AK party will hope that protesters will be tired and return to worry about crushing inflation (39% in February) and the declining value of the Turkish pound, not freedom of speech and democracy.

In the coming days and weeks, they will test the strength of remaining on both sides. But if there are lessons to learn from street protests in other authoritarian nations, the quick breakthrough seems unlikely.