Trump-Modi’s ties hit a rocky bottom with new rates for India over Russian oil

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was one of the first world leaders to visit Washington weeks after US President Donald Trump began his second term.

He called Modi his “great friend” when the two sides set ambitious goal of doubling their trade up to $ 500 billion by 2030

But less than six months later, the connection seems to have hit the rock bottom.

Trump now imposed a total of 50% tariffs Goods imported from IndiaAnd his worse threat to impose an additional 10% on the country’s membership in the BRICS group, which includes China, Russia and South Africa as members of the founders, still stands.

Initially, he imposed a 25% tariff, but declared an additional 25% on Wednesday as a punishment for the purchase of Russian oil in Delhi – a move of the Indian government called “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable”.

And last week, Trump called India’s economy “dead”.

This is a stunning conversion in connection with force into force over the last two decades, thanks to the efforts of consistent governments in both countries, bilateral support and convergence on global issues.

In the last few weeks, there have been positive signals from Washington and Delhi about an upcoming trade deal. Now this seems more difficult, if not impossible.

So what went wrong?

A series of wrong steps, magnificent, geopolitics and internal political pressure seem to have violated the negotiations.

Delhi has been restrained in his response to Trump’s tirages so far, hoping that diplomacy can ultimately help secure a commercial deal. But there are no guarantees in Trump’s White House.

Trump has commented on many questions Delhi views the red lines. The largest of them is Trump to repeatedly place India and his opponent Pakistan on an equal basisS

Thehe The US President hosted Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir In the White House just weeks after a bitter conflict between the two South Asian rivals.

He then signed a commercial deal with Pakistan, offering the country a preferential rate of 19%, together with a transaction to investigate the oil reserves in the country. He came to the point that one day Pakistan could sell India oil.

Another constant irritant to Delhi is Trump’s repeated claim that the United States has overcome the truce between India and Pakistan.

India examines its dispute with Pakistan about cashmere as an internal affair and has always rejected third -party mediation on the matter. Most world leaders are sensitive to Delhi’s position, including Trump in his first president as president.

But this is no longer the case. The US president has doubled in his request, even after Modi told India’s parliament that “no country had mediated in the truce.”

Modi did not point to Trump or the United States, but internal political pressure on him did not worship him in the White House.

“The fact that this is the case against the backdrop of a heavy and high level of US engagement with Islamabad immediately after a conflict in India and Pakistan is even more large for Delhi and the wider Indian public. All this exacerbates the concerns by some in India that the US cannot really trust as a partner,” Analyza says Analyza.

He adds that some of the wrath in Delhi can “luggage from the Cold War era comes to the fore,” but “this time around it is also intensified by real -time development.”

The Modi Government is thriving on nationalist issues, so its supporters are likely to expect a firm response to the United States.

This is a Catch -22 situation – Delhi still wants to make a deal, but also does not want to encounter a twist under the pressure of Trump.

And it seems that Delhi gradually releases the restriction. In response to Washington’s anger regarding the purchase of Russian oil in India, Delhi swore to take “all necessary measures” to protect his “national interests and economic security”.

But the question is why Trump, who loved India’s hospitality and called it a great country earlier, continued a tirade against a reliable ally.

Some analysts see his insults as a pressure tactic to secure a deal he believes works for the United States.

“Trump is a real estate tycoon and a difficult negotiator. His style may not be diplomatic, but he is looking for the results that diplomats would do it. So, I think what he is doing is part of the negotiating strategy,” says Jindalra Nat Miss, a former Ambassador and now a professor at OP Jindal Ginden

A source in the Indian government said Delhi was giving many discounts to Washington, including no tariffs for industrial goods and a gradual reduction in car and alcohol rates. He also signed a deal to allow Elon Musk Starlink operations to start in India.

But Washington wanted access to agriculture and dairy sectors in India to reduce the $ 45 billion trade deficit that works with Delhi.

But these sectors are a red fashion line or on this issue any Indian Prime Minister. Agriculture and related sectors represent more than 45% of employment in India and Consistent governments have cruelly protected farmersS

Kugelman believes that the transfer of Washington’s demands is not an option for India.

“India must first master public anger and clarify that it will not give in to the pressure. This is crucial for internal political reasons,” he says.

He also believes that Trump’s insistence that India has stopped importing oil from Moscow has more to do with his increasing impotence Over Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“We see Trump continues to strengthen his pressure tactics, trying to tear Russia from its most important oil buyers by sanctioning them for a business with Moscow,” he says.

But Delhi cannot afford to stop importing oil from Russia overnight.

India is now the third largest consumer of raw material in the world and can surpass China in the top position by 2030, as energy demand is likely to increase with a fast-paced middle-class, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Russia now represents more than 30% of the total oil imports in India, a significant jump of less than 1% in 2021-22.

Many in the West see this as India indirectly financed the war in Moscow, but Delhi denies this by arguing that buying Russian oil at a discount guarantees energy security for millions of its citizens.

India also sees Russia as its ally for “all atmospheric conditions”. Moscow has traditionally come to the rescue of Delhi during past crises and still enjoys support among the wider Indian audience.

Moscow is also the largest weapon supplier in Delhi, although its share in the portfolio of defense imports in India dropped to 36% between 2020-25 from 55% between 2016 and 2020, according to Stockholm International Peace Study Institute.

This is largely due to the fact that Delhi stimulates domestic production and buys more than the United States, France and Israel.

But Russia’s role in India’s defense strategy cannot be overestimated. This is something that the West has understood and does not cause – until Trump decides to cope with the established norms.

So far, India has successfully managed to go to the diplomatic channel with the West overlooking its strong ties with Russia.

The United States has long seen India as a China dominance in the Indo-Pacific region, which provided bilateral support for Delhi in Washington.

And Moscow (though sometimes reluctantly) did not respond roughly to its ally, forging close ties with Washington and other Western countries.

But now Trump has challenged this position. How Delhi reacts will decide the future of relations in India and the United States.

India has been measured in its response so far, but it does not restrain itself. In her statement, she said the United States had encouraged him to continue buying oil from Russia for stability on the global energy market.

He also stated that its targeting was unjustified as the EU continues to buy energy, fertilizer, yield and chemical products from Russia.

Although things look bad, some analysts say everything is not lost. India and the US have close connections in many sectors that cannot be eradicated overnight.

The two countries cooperate closely in space technology, IT, education and defense sector.

Very large internal IT companies have invested a lot in the US, and most major silicone valley companies have operations in India.

“I think the basics of the relationship are not weak. The paradox is that the day Trump announced 25% rates and unspecified penalties, India and the US have cooperated in a strategic area when it is Indian rocket sent a jointly developed satellite in space“Says G -n Missra.

It will be interesting to see how India reacts to Trump’s acute rhetoric.

“Trump is a non -napologist transactional and commercial in his foreign policy approach. He has no violation of the unfolding of these potentially alienating raw tactics against a close partner of the United States like India,” says G -N Kugelman.

But he adds that he has a lot of confidence baked in the partnership, given the work that has entered it over the last two decades.

“So what is lost can potentially be returned. But because of the extent of this discomfort, it can take a long time.”

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