Tundu Lissu – the fiery political survivor of Tanzania, who insists on reforms

Shoted 16 times in an attempt to murder in 2017, Tindu Lisu is the great survivor of Tanzanian politics – and one of his most followed politicians.

But some ask if he has now reached the end of the line.

Lisu, the leader of the main opposition party Chadma, returns to the spotlight after being charged with betrayal – a crime for which the maximum sentence is the death penalty.

However, he is uncertain. Despite the huge risk, he believes that he can press the government to introduce reforms before the Presidential and Parliamentary elections in October.

But can he withstand the storm in a harsh political environment and against what he believes are politically guided accusations?

His party has been disqualified by the election and has been in detention over the last two weeks.

Last September, Lisu told the BBC that nothing would come on a silver plate and it would take the courage to require reforms “on the streets and in the villages”.

In order to achieve his goals, he felt that he must take over the leadership of Chadem.

The fiery politician Lisu was critical of the way the party was being held, accusing the then President Freeman Moy of being too reconciled to the government.

In an intense race, he canceled Mbowe from office.

After only three months of leading Chadema, Lisu was arrested and detained for a speech, which is said to be a rebellion and breaking the election.

He was not allowed to go on a legal basis on the state treason, but he pleaded guilty to a separate charge for publishing false information.

Prior to his arrest, he held gatherings across the country with a rally call for “No Reform, No Election.”

He said the current system was forged in favor of the ruling CCM party, adding that without reform it made no sense to participate in the election.

He must reappear in court on Thursday. He cannot seek a guarantee because he is accused of betrayal.

His international lawyer Robert Amsterdam told the BBC that it was their “mission to defend democracy.”

Still, it’s not a simple task – CCM has won all elections after independence and is unlikely to easily release its spiritualization.

There is also a gap in Chadema, with some members disagreed with the Lisu strategy.

The party is forbidden to challenge the elections in October after refusing to comply with the requirement of the election committee to sign a code of conduct.

The main purpose of the document “is to ensure that political parties and their supporters behave well … and maintain peace and harmony” during the election.

Chadema sees the Code of Conduct as an attempt to control the opposition and fears that state repression will continue.

In September, a senior party official in Chadema was abducted and brutally killed against the backdrop of a wave of kidnapping critics.

During the November local elections, Chadema said thousands of his candidates were banned from participating. The ruling party has won about 98% of the seats.

The government rejected suggestions that the elections were not free and fair, saying they were held in accordance with the rules.

But for Lisu, local elections justified his calls for reforms before the presidential and parliamentary polls.

The Human Rights Watch campaign group expressed similar fears and called on the government to terminate political repression.

The Catholic Church added its voice to calls for the unconditional release of Lisu and for just elections.

But the arrest of opposition politicians continued, although Prime Minister Kasim Mazhiva promised earlier this month that the authorities would provide security and justice in the ballot box.

The BBC contacted the government for comment.

President Suluhu Hasan himself gave the Tanzanians more political freedom after she took office after the death of her predecessor John Magufuli in 2021.

However, Tanzania again “began to see the wave of repression and state-organ violence”, which characterizes the management of Magufuli, said Tanzania’s political analyst Nicodemus Mande.

It was during this era that Lisu experienced attempted murder.

Before his arrest, Lisu said his party had a list of “minimal but critical reforms that need to be made to guarantee free elections.”

G -n -Amsterdam, his lawyer, told the BBC that this included the formation of a “truly independent national election committee with members unrelated to the government” – and this must be enshrined in the Constitution.

Chadma also wants to have electoral disputes, the burden of proof must be hidden in the committee to show that the vote was free and fair.

Lisu’s strategy is at a great price for herself and Chadema as a party faction, known as the G-55, has accepted a softer position.

She called on the party to compete Elections while pursuing conversations with the government about his demands.

This is the approach used by the second largest opposition party, Act-Wazalendo.

Along with 16 opposition parties, he signed the Code of Conduct. Only Chadma refused.

Lissu seems to see neighboring Kenya – where mass protests last year forced the government to drop plans to increase taxes – as a model that follows.

At that time, he told the BBC that the Tanzanians did not “press out strong enough for democratic reform” and what Kenya went through to get (his) democratic distribution was something we need to do. “

Whether such a strategy would work is not clear, as many Tanzan seems to be not inclined to support a public campaign that can shake the government.

But the Amsterdam said that the more unknown the government, the more it would stimulate Chadema’s supporters “to move forward and to participate in civil disobedience.”

He added that Chadem would use “every legal and political instrument” to make a change.

But political analyst Thomas Cype criticized the Lisu strategy, saying that with the term of the current parliament, which must be completed in June, there will be not enough time to give the legal effect of any major reforms before the October election.

He said it could be better to wait for the election.

Fulgence Masswe, the director of an organization for legal rights in Tanzania, told the BBC that Chadema’s pursuit of election reforms faced significant obstacles, but the party has the right to appeal to the court to dispute its exclusion from the election.

Minde said that if Chadema remains excluded from the election, the ruling party will probably increase its already overwhelming majority in parliament.

The analyst added that Chadema could even lose his position as a major opposition party and “of course nature is withdrawing and probably other opposition parties will take advantage of this opportunity.”

It is a risk that Lisu and the party have chosen to take over.