What can be Iran’s next move

Iran fiercely responds to American air strikes to three of its nuclear objects, promising what it calls “eternal consequences”.

But beyond words, feverish discussions will be held at the highest level at the Iran Security and Intelligence restaurant.

Should they escalate the conflict through revenge against US interests or as US President Donald Trump has called for them to do, negotiate, which in practice means giving up all nuclear enrichment in Iran?

This internal debate will be held at a time when many senior Iranian commanders will look through their shoulders, wondering if they will be the next goal of Israeli precision air strike or whether anyone in the room has already handed them over to Mossad, the overcrowded spy agency of Israel.

Generally speaking, there are three different strategic action courses that are now open to Iran. None of them is without risk and the most burned in the minds of those who make decisions will be the survival of the Islamic Republic regime.

Many will stick to blood. Iran was humiliated, first by Israel, now from what he often called the “Great Satan”, his term for the United States.

The constant exchanges of fire in Iran with Israel continue on its tenth day, but avenge against the United States brings a whole new level of risk, not only for Iran, but for the whole region.

It is believed that Iran retains about half of its original stock of about 3,000 rockets after using and losing the rest of the fire with Israel.

Iran has a target list of about 20 US bases to choose from in the broader Middle East.

One of the closest and closer is the scattered headquarters of the powerful Fifth Navy of the US Navy in Mina Salman in Bahrain. But Iran may not be inclined to hit a neighboring Arab state in the Persian Gulf. It may be more likely to use his proxies in Iraq and Syria to attack any of the relatively isolated US bases in AT-Tanf, Ain Al-Aasad or Erbil. Iran has a shape here.

When Trump ordered the assassination of Iran’s Quds leader of Quds forces in 2020, Iran replied by heading to US military officials in Iraq, but avoiding killing any notice. This may not do it this time.

Iran can also launch the “swarm attacks” of the US Navy Navy, using drones and fast torpedo boats, something that the revolutionary fleet of the guards’ body has been practicing over the years.

The goal, if she went along this route, would be to overcome the US naval defense through clean numbers. He can also ask his allies in Yemen, Hutiis, to resume their attacks against Western shipping, passing between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea.

There are also economic goals that Iran could strike, but this would oppose its Arab neighbors in the Persian Gulf, which recently reached a restless Vivendi modus with the Islamic Republic.

The biggest and most harmful goal here would be to suffocate the Hormuz Vital Strait, through which more than 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies pass every day. Iran could do so by sowing marine mines, creating a deadly danger for both naval and commercial shipping.

Then there is a cyber. Iran, along with North Korea, Russia and China, has a complex offensive cyber capacity. Inserting destructive malware into US networks or businesses is undoubtedly one of the options under consideration.

This would mean a wait until the current tension subsides and a surprising attack at the time of Iran’s choice, when the US bases were no longer alert.

Such an attack may also be focused on US diplomatic, consular or commercial missions or extend to the murder of individuals. The risk here for Iran, of course, is that it will probably invoke the updated attacks in the United States, just as ordinary Iranians return to their normal life.

This would take great restraint on the part of Iran, but it will spare it from more attacks in the United States. He could even choose the diplomatic route and join the negotiations with the United States, although Iran’s foreign minister said Iran had never left these negotiations that Iran and the United States in his words were blowing them up.

But restarting negotiations in the United States and Iran in Maskat, Rome or anywhere, it would only cost to do if Iran was ready to accept the red line that both the US and Israel insist. Namely, that Iran maintains its civil nuclear program, it has to send the entire Uranus outside the country for enrichment.

Not doing anything after taking such a tingling, it also makes the Iranian regime look weak, especially after all its warnings of terrible consequences if the US attacked. In the end, he may decide that the risk of weakening its population on the population exceeds the cost of all more attacks in the United States.