What every country wants from Ukraine speaks in the White House

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Laura Gosi and Tom Geogeagan

BBC News

AFP via Getty Images Headshots of Trump andAFP via Getty Images

He promises to be a day, unlike anyone else in the White House later, when world leaders rarely make a collective visit to call for Krunch to Ukraine.

What was announced as a meeting between two presidents, Donald Trump and Volodomir Zelenski, has now become a summit.

UK leaders, France, Germany, Italy, Finland, the EU and NATO have failed through the Atlantic to have their say in how the three -year war with Russia should end and what conditions.

This is a reflection of how high the bets are and the increased European fears that the United States has moved its position to a less favorable for Ukraine.

We break what each of those present – and the one who did not – would consider a victory when the sun sets a long day of conversation.

USA – a deal, every deal

The promise of Trump’s campaign was that he would resolve this conflict on his first day of service, but six months later the breakthrough he wanted was still avoiding it.

The terms of each agreement seemed less important to Trump than the transaction itself, so the conditions shifted over time.

After meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, it seems that Trump has thrown his criticism of Moscow and the threat of sanctions and instead decided to accumulate pressure on Zelenski.

In a late social post on Sunday night, he warned the Ukrainian president that he had to give up the hopes of NATO membership and would have to give way to Crimea, which Putin illegally annexed in 2014.

Trump’s envoy Steve Vikoff said on Sunday that Washington would provide security guarantees to Europe aimed at deterrence of more Russian aggression. But the details remain unclear.

So far, the United States is opposing European demands that are committed to Ukraine’s future security. Later, all eyes will be directed to the White House to see if this has really changed.

Ukraine – Refuse discounts on the territory

Zelenski finds himself in the unenviable position to have to stand on his ground in front of an increasingly impoverished Donald Trump, who seems to have been swinging of Putin and who has already accused Zelenski of being on the way alone.

Trump is likely to tell Zelenski that he must agree to give up the ground. This will be extremely difficult for the Ukrainian president to surrender, as this will lead to a withdrawal from Donetsk and Luhansk, regions with which thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have fought and died to defend from 2022.

This would also allow Russia to be in control of huge territories that could later use as a start for more aggression.

So Zelenski cannot agree to discounts without strong security guarantees that would start if Russia is attacking again. They could be provided by NATO, but Trump made it clear that Ukraine would not join the Union.

Details of any alternative guarantees are probably not yet developed, but without them it will be difficult to Zelenski to make any commitments.

Ukraine is also concerned about the fact that Trump seems to have passed from the request of the fire to the impetus for a complete peaceful deal. This can take an extremely long time, which will allow for prolonged Russian attacks, civil deaths and first -line losses in the meantime.

A map showing Russian profits in the eastern regions of Ukraine of Lukansk and Donetsk

Europe – an American commitment to Ukraine’s security

European leaders will try to encourage Trump to unfold what the US security can seem to be for Ukraine.

The vagueness of US statements on the subject is alarming for Europeans who feel protection against potential future attacks of Russia will have to come from a reliable American commitment.

There is also a nervousness about the idea that the United States can insist Ukraine to abandon the land of Russia. The European continent has a long history of bloody wars and leaders want to avoid a scenario where the borders of the state’s country are redirected.

These serious concerns explain the unprecedented solution for such a large contingent of leaders to visit the White House at the last moment.

Last week, the US-EU virtual meeting before the Alaska Summit seemed to have an effect of hardening Trump’s criticism of Russia; Now that he reappears on the side of Moscow, European leaders will try to impress him that their worries about the long -term security of the continent have not changed.

Russia – More Ukrainian Land

There will be no Russian representative in the White House today. This may not matter: it seems that Putin impressed Trump last week that Moscow may be sure that his point of view will be adequately presented.

Trump has already said that Ukraine will not join NATO – and Russia wants this commitment to be repeated and ratified. He also wants full control over Donbass, which would lead to a refusal of land that still holds in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Perhaps the most important thing is that Moscow has managed to suggest in Trump that it is now from Zelenski to conclude a transaction to end the war – until she knows perfectly well that she cannot agree to overcome the territory directly. A victory for Russia would be to make this friction that Trump was moving away from the negotiating table for good and left Ukraine and Europeans to take care of themselves.

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