What happens if TikTok gets banned?

TikTok will be banned in the US on January 19 – unless the Supreme Court rules a last legal bid from its Chinese owner, ByteDance, that it would be unconstitutional.

But even if the nation’s highest court agrees with lower courts — and Congress — that the platform is a threat to national security, will that really stop Americans from using it?

Will there be ways around the ban — or could President-elect Donald Trump find a way to stop a law he says he opposes even if the courts uphold it?

And whatever happens to TikTok, who will gain from the uncertainty clouding its future?

The most likely way for the US to ban TikTok is to order app stores such as the Google Play Store and Apple’s App Store to make it unavailable for download in that region.

US lawmakers have already told tech firms to be ready to remove the app from their stores if the ban goes into effect.

This would mean that people could no longer use legitimate means to access TikTok – although it would also mean that people who already got it would still have it on their phones.

Since the app will no longer be publicly available, new updates can no longer be delivered to US users – which will make the app more buggy and eventually unusable.

Not to mention, many updates are provided to fix app security holes, so if TikTok stops receiving updates, it could give hackers millions of devices to target.

Of course, there are ways around such a ban.

There are already many videos on TikTok that inform users how to use a VPN (virtual private network) – a way to appear as if you are in another region.

The region of app stores can also be changed on most devices, so anyone can theoretically access apps from other countries — though that can cause other problems, not to mention possibly violating terms of service agreements.

It is also possible to install applications downloaded from the Internet, modifying a device – which may violate copyright law – and carries its own risks. However, the government has also anticipated this, so it is also proposing to ban “internet hosting services” from giving people access to the app.

So if the ban takes this form, it seems likely that those determined to use TikTok after it goes into effect will be able to do so — but it won’t be the experience they’re used to.

There are still other avenues available to the government along the way — for example, after India banned TikTok in 2020, it ordered ISPs to block access to the app entirely.

And even if people did use a VPN, there are still ways for TikTok to theoretically determine if a person is based in the US — and then simply show them a screen that the app isn’t available in their country.

It remains to be seen whether TikTok will decide to help the government with its own ban — but Reuters reports that it plans to do so.

TikTok’s own lawyer told the Supreme Court that he believed the app would “go dark” in the US unless it ruled in its favour.

The complexity of the problem means that even the experts are not clear on what will happen next.

Professor Milton L. The Georgia Institute of Technology’s Mueller — who filed a legal brief in support of TikTok — said the lack of clarity about how far the U.S. can extend its enforcement powers makes it necessary to know what technically happens if the ban goes through. to be determined.

But he said what is clear is the impact it will have on users and the Internet itself.

“It would completely legitimize the fragmentation of the internet along national or jurisdictional lines,” he said.

Trump has been clear that he opposes the law – which will take effect the day before he returns to office – asking the Supreme Court to delay its implementation while he seeks a “policy solution”.

His incoming national security adviser, Mike Waltz, told Fox News that the president-elect is looking for ways to “preserve” TikTok regardless of the court’s ruling, saying Americans’ access to the platform and their data will be preserved.

However, the exact mechanism for this is not clear – according to the Washington Post – one option being considered is for Trump to sign an executive order to suspend the law.

“I don’t want to preempt our executive orders, but we will create the space to get this deal done,” Mr. Waltz said.

Another option would be for Trump to allow the law to remain in place but tell the Justice Department not to enforce it.

The government will effectively tell Apple and Google that they won’t be penalized for continuing to allow access to TikTok, meaning the law will remain in place but will essentially be redundant.

Obviously, businesses may feel uncomfortable breaking the law, even if they’re told it’s OK — since in effect they’ll be required to take the president’s word that they won’t be punished.

TikTok says it has 170 million US users who spent an average of 51 minutes a day on the app in 2024.

Ban TikTok or make it less usable, and that creates a huge opportunity for its big tech rivals, says Jasmine Enberg, an analyst at Insider Intelligence.

“Instagram Reels, owned by Meta, and YouTube Shorts, owned by Google, are the most natural for displaced users, creators and advertisers,” she says.

Facebook could also benefit, although Ms Enberg says that in common with all Meta platforms, controversial policy changes announced by boss Mark Zuckerberg could potentially reduce its appeal.

Users drive advertisers – so a ban could be a big financial boost for these platforms.

“The CMOs we spoke to confirmed that they would direct their media dollars to Meta and Google if they could no longer advertise on TikTok – this is the same behavior we saw in India when they banned TikTok in 2020.” said Forrester principal analyst Kelsey Chickering.

Lemon8, which is also owned by ByteDance, would be an obvious place for people to go after a ban — but the law stipulates that it also applies to other apps owned or operated by the company. This means Lemon8 will likely also face being unavailable in the US.

Other potential winners include Twitch, which made its name with live hosting, a popular feature on TikTok. Twitch is well-known especially to gamers, although it continues to grow with other content.

Other Chinese-owned platforms, like Xiaohongshu – known as RedNote to its US users – has seen rapid growth in the US and UK.

Still, some suggest that no existing app can truly replace TikTok, specifically its TikTok Shop feature, which allows users to buy products directly from videos and makes a lot of money for creators in the US.

Craig Atkinson, CEO of digital marketing agency Code3, said there was no direct competitor that people could easily switch to – and noted that his agency was signing new contracts with clients to build TikTok Shop campaigns as recently as December.

Until now, ByteDance has been adamant that there is no sale of its prize asset in the US.

But could that change if it is indeed banned — and when a president who prides himself on the “art of the deal” returns to the White House?

Potential buyers continue to line up – with Bloomberg News reported Tuesday that the company is, however, considering a sale to billionaire Elon Musk TikTok has since described this as “pure fiction”.

Former Trump Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and billionaire businessman Frank McCourt are among those who have previously expressed interest in buying it.

Mr. McCourt, a former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team, said he had secured $20 billion in verbal commitments from a consortium of investors to bid for TikTok.

There’s an even more left-field – and considerably less serious – proposed owner.

World’s Biggest YouTuber MrBeast claims he is now in the race to make a deal after having billionaires contact him about it.

While it may seem like a joke, he has a significant financial incentive to try to save the app – MrBeast has more than 100 million followers on TikTok.