What is behind the political crisis of France and what can happen afterwards?

Francois Bairu, the French Prime Minister, will lose a vote of confidence for his leadership, in the last reversal of chaos within the National Assembly.

The 74 -year -old Bairu is the fourth prime minister after two years with President Emmanuel Macron, whose second term is in service, is overshadowed by political instability.

The Bairu minority government has called on 44 billion euros (38 billion British pounds) budget abbreviations to deal with the growing public debt of France and is now heading for a collapse.

The BBC looks at what led to this political crisis and what can happen afterwards.

French President Emmanuel Macron took a gambling in June 2024.

Faced with a bruising loss for his party at the vote of the European Parliament, he called immediate parliamentary elections that he hoped to achieve “a clear majority in peace and harmony.”

Instead, this led to a suspended, divided parliament, which made it difficult for every Prime Minister to win the necessary support to accept accounts and the annual budget.

Macron appointed Michel Barnier last September, but within three months the man who negotiated the Brexit for the EU had come out – the shortest period since the beginning of France the post -war Fifth Republic.

Bayrou has been ready to suffer the same fate, just under nine months since he came to office last December.

Meanwhile, some parties – mainly from the final and final left – continue to move to the early presidential election.

Macron has always said he would not stand before his term of office ended in 2027.

Instead, he will probably have to choose between the appointment of the Fifth Prime Minister for less than two years -who again risks working at the time occupied -or calls SNAP elections for parliament, which can lead to an even more vigilant national assembly.

There are several good options for the president, as the effects of his gambling in June 2024 continue to be reflected.

Bayro’s key question is the French debt crisis, and what he says is the need to reduce government spending to get out of a catastrophe for future generations.

The most, the government of France, has spent more money for decades than generated. As a result, she has to borrow to cover her budget.

The French Government says that in early 2025, public debt amounts to 3.345 billion euros, or 114% of GDPS

This is the third highest public debt in the euro area after Greece and Italy and equivalent to almost € 50,000 per French citizen.

Last year, the budget deficit was 5.8% of GDP, and this year is not expected to be 5.4%. Thus, public debt will continue to increase as borrowing covers shortages.

France – as many developed countries – faces the demographic headache of the aging population – less workers who are taxed and more people who attract the state pension.

Bayrou is one of those French politicians who want to reduce the deficit by redefining generous social programs – as state pensions.

In his speech in parliament on Monday, Byiro talks about a country of “life support” and addicted to costs.

Two years ago, France raised the retirement age from 62 to 64 for those born in 1968 or after, and Bayro warned that the feeling that French workers could stop working in the early 60s was already outdated.

However, there is a lot of opposition to further redundancies. The predecessor of the Bairu government collapsed with a vote of confidence on the issue last December.

Politicians on the left called for tax raising, not to reduce the budget.

If Bayrou is expected to lose the vote in the National Assembly early this evening, then France is likely to go to another period of doubt, drift and speculation.

President Emmanuel Macron may act quickly to appoint a new Prime Minister – it is certainly in the interest of the country to do so.

But the practicality-and the precedent, both suggest that this may be drawn.

Macron must find a name unacceptable enough for at least part of the parliamentary opposition that they will not automatically download it.

The first two PMS in this Benizen Parliament – Barnier and Bayro – took weeks. The third will not be easier.

Meanwhile, Bayrou is likely to remain as head of the government’s government.

There is pressure from some neighborhoods – more special rally of Marin Le Pen – for a new disintegration of the Assembly and parliamentary elections. But there are also strong voices that say it will be a waste of time because it is unlikely that a new vote will change a lot.

Beyond that, there are voices – from the final left this time – calling Macron’s resignation as president. But don’t look at this space. Knowing the character of the person, it is the less likely to happen.

If Bayrou falls, the pressure will be strong on Macron to name the heir to the left. The last two were on the right and in the center, and a left -wing union came out at the top of the 2024 election.

Olivier FaureThe leader of the Socialist Party would be an opportunity. The 57-year-old has a group of 66 MPs in the National Assembly.

Two other options on the left are Former Prime Minister Bernard Casenevand the veteran Former Minister Pierre MoskovichiCuro des Comptes, the official accounting service, is currently head.

If Macron decides to stick to the center and on the right, his first choice is likely to be Sebastian Smelly, 39The current Minister of Defense, who is a member of Macron’s Renaissance Party and said he was close to the president.

Another conservative whose name is mentioned is the current Minister of Labor and Health, Catherine VatrinS

Two other options from the interior of the government are Interior Minister Bruno Retailwho now leads the Republicans and Justice Minister Gerald DarmanS

But with all the looks of the 2027 presidential election, these heavy weights will want the death kiss of death, which should be Macron’s next prime minister?