Where voters do not want to throw out the existing – and why

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The writer is the chairman of Rockefeller International. It is his latest bookWhat went wrong with capitalism‘

As Donald Trump prepares to take office, the victory is still seen as part of a global story of disillusioned voters turning on incumbent leaders. But this rebellion is not universal. Only in developed countries.

Last year, parties in power lost 85 percent of elections in rich countries, up from an average of 25 percent in the early 2000s. In developing countries, the sentiment is reversed. In the year In the 2024 election, incumbents lost about 25 percent, down from 50 percent in the early 2000s. Pollsters tell a similar story: Respondents’ approval of their leader has fallen to nearly 30 percent in developed countries, but more than 50 percent in developing countries.

Incumbent leaders are as, if not more, popular in the developing world than ever before. So what is behind this huge difference?

Hostility to powers in Europe, Japan and the US has recently been linked to varying degrees with immigration and commodity prices, suggesting the system is increasingly rigged and biased against the common man. This is further fueling the long-term decline in public trust in government. But all of these forces are less acute or absent in many emerging democracies, where incumbent parties such as India, Indonesia, and Mexico have won big.

Voters in the U.S. and Europe said one of the biggest problems they faced last year was inflation, a legacy of the pandemic that has kept prices for basic needs at an all-time low. The shock felt by the electorate was profound as inflation soared in the developed world.

In the year In 2024, egg prices in the U.S. were still 200 percent higher than they were before the pandemic — and nearly 50 percent higher in India and Indonesia. Even after adjusting for broader inflation, house prices rose 17 percent in developed countries and only 3 percent in developing countries, which helps explain why unaffordable homes in the United States and the United Kingdom are fueling strong anti-establishment sentiment.

Meanwhile, increased immigration has become a burning electoral issue in Western countries, but not in developing countries, which are often the destination for migrants.

Although much of the post-pandemic recovery has led. Big profits for the rich than othersIn developing countries, the gap has been widening relatively slowly. Since 1980, the income share of the top 1 percent has more than doubled to 21 percent in the United States, compared to an average increase of 3 points to 18 percent in major emerging economies. Interestingly, Mexico is one of the few countries where the income share of the top 1 percent is declining.

Rising inflation, immigration and inequality help explain why only 20 percent of Americans express trust in government, up from more than 70 percent in the 1960s. Confidence has been rising on average in developing countries, with the largest increases over the past decade in countries where incumbents won last year. Nearly 50 percent of Mexicans and more than 70 percent of Indians and Indonesians now express confidence in their government.

One reason for the increase in trust is the rapid digitization of government, which will improve public service delivery by cutting out corrupt middlemen. In the year By 2022, according to India’s results, the governments of developing countries were ahead of their developed counterparts in the World Bank’s “Government Technological Maturity” index.

In the developing world, electoral battles are more idiosyncratic and localized. In Mexico, the ruling party won last year on the back of its record on fighting poverty, and in Indonesia, President Joko Widodo has been popular over accusations that he installed his son as his successor. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi still won a third term despite losing a majority in the legislature. Across India, the ruling parties have fared well in recent state elections as well.

These mood swings seem likely to continue. In the year The 2025 elections will show incumbents losing in all three national elections in the developed world – in Germany, Australia and Canada. There will be fewer major national elections in developing countries and emerging markets, but polls show mixed results. Incumbents are headed for defeat in national elections in Poland and Romania, victories in Ecuador and major legislative elections in Argentina and the Philippines. At present, most developing countries see no urgent reason to drop the stake.