Why Somalis are underwhelmed by Donald Trump

Many people in Somaliland are convinced that the United States, under the incoming presidency of Donald Trump, is poised to become the first country in the world to recognize the self-proclaimed republic.

The territory declared independence 33 years ago after Somalia descended into civil war – and in many ways has functioned as a de facto nation-state ever since.

“Donald is our savior. He is a wise and practical man. God bless America,” says student Aisha Ismail, her voice trembling with delight at the prospect.

She spoke to me from Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, a city 850 km (530 miles) north of Mogadishu, the seat of the Somali government.

For those in Mogadishu, Somaliland is an inseparable part of Somalia.

“I doubt Donald Trump knows what Somaliland is, no matter where he is,” says Abdi Mohamud, a data analyst in Mogadishu, his voice beginning to shake.

“I breathe fire.”

He is so angry because Mrs. Ismail’s high expectations are not necessarily a pipe dream, at least in the long run.

Powerful and influential Republicans are pushing for the same, including Congressman Scott Perry, who last month introduced bill that proposes official recognition of Somaliland by the US.

It followed publication in April 2023. on Project 2025a road map for Trump’s second presidency compiled by the prominent right-wing Heritage Foundation and more than 100 other conservative organizations

The document mentions only two African territories in its part of sub-Saharan Africa – Somaliland and Djibouti – and proposes “the recognition of Somaliland’s statehood as a safeguard against the deteriorating US position in Djibouti”.

But the fact that sub-Saharan Africa takes up less than two pages in the 900-plus page plan suggests the continent is very low on the priority list.

And there’s no guarantee the incoming administration will follow through on the plan, part of which Trump has already disavowed.

But one thing is clear. The US has already begun to shift its stance on Somaliland, moving away from its Mogadishu-focused approach, known as the “one track” policy for Somalia.

Somalia has cost the US dearly in financial, resource and human terms since the early 1990s, when the bodies of 18 US servicemen were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu after US helicopters were shot down by Somali clan fighters.

The battle, known as “Black Hawk Down,” was America’s worst in terms of casualties since the Vietnam War.

“Any move to recognize Somaliland’s independence would not only violate Somalia’s sovereignty, but also destabilize the region, setting a dangerous precedent,” said Somalia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Ali Mohamed Omar.

The African Union and other world powers believe that territorial integrity is paramount. Recognition of Somaliland could set off a chain reaction with separatists around the world seeking recognition of the territories they claim.

Omar also highlighted concerns about a possible repeat of the Trump administration’s first decision to withdraw most US troops fighting al-Shabaab, regularly described as al-Qaeda’s most successful affiliate, from Somalia.

During Joe Biden’s presidency, about 500 US troops were deployed in Somalia – conducting special operations and training the elite Somali force Danab, which means “Lightning”, and proved more effective than the regular Somali army in rooting out al-Shabaab.

The Americans have an air base in Baledogle, northwest of Mogadishu, and conduct regular airstrikes against the Islamist rebels.

“Withdrawal would create a significant security vacuum, emboldening terrorist groups and threatening the stability not only of Somalia, but of the Horn of Africa more broadly,” Omar warned.

The minister’s remarks are in a similar vein, but more measured, than Somalia’s response to the Somaliland-Ethiopia deal in which recognition would be given in exchange for access to the sea.

I received late-night calls from Somalis who said they couldn’t sleep over the controversial proposal.

Somalia’s then environment minister, Aden Ibrahim Au Hirsi, told me at the time: “You always talk about ‘political bombs’ in your reporting.

“People here are talking about a political earthquake. This is much more serious. This is a tsunami.”

Since then, Turkey has brokered an end to hostilities but the fact that Somalia recently signed a $600,000 (£492,000)-a-year deal with Washington’s biggest lobbying firm, the BGR Group, suggests it is worried about its relationship with the incoming Trump administration.

USA last month abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution to finance the latest incarnation of the African Union intervention force in Somalia.

A key architect of Republican Africa thinking, particularly as it relates to Somalia’s problems, is Joshua Meservey, who recently moved from the Heritage Foundation to the right-wing Hudson Institute.

“The case for Somaliland from the US perspective is very compelling,” he argued. “I think the issue of recognition will definitely be discussed, although the guiding North Star is what is best for US national interests in practice.

Senior African officials under Trump, including former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy and Africa envoy Peter Pham, have been strong supporters of Somaliland independence.

Like many American Republicans, Somaliland Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Adan sees the relationship in transactional terms.

“If the deal is good for us, we will accept it. If the US wants a military base here, we will give it to them.”

Supporters of recognition argue that Somaliland sits at the locus of several converging US interests — economic, military and strategic.

Mr Meservey added that the territory should be “rewarded” for sticking to democratic principles, not relying on foreign aid and having a small government.

Its long coastline runs alongside one of the world’s busiest sea lanes.

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels may have displaced Somali pirates as the region’s main disruptor of traffic, but the attacks remain a major threat to global trade and are pushing the region closer to war in the Middle East.

The scramble for foreign bases along the coast of the Horn of Africa is a cause for concern for the US, which established its largest military installation on the continent in Djibouti in 2002.

Russia eyes Port Sudan; The United Arab Emirates (UAE) used Eritrea’s Assab to fight the Houthis, and Djibouti is blockaded by foreign forces, including the Chinese, who not only have well-placed military facilities but also control the huge port.

Turkey’s largest foreign base stretches along the Somali coast just south of Mogadishu.

Dealing with a rising China is Trump’s top priority.

The US has accused the Chinese of interfering with its activities in Djibouti by shining lasers into the eyes of its air force pilots and asking them to relocate.

He also wants to thwart China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is taking over much of Africa.

The Red Sea port of Berbera, whether you see it as part of Somaliland or Somalia, has much to offer as an alternative.

China is gone; really outraged that in 2020 Taiwan established diplomatic relations with the breakaway republic.

The UAE, a key US ally, operates the newly expanded port and hopes it will rival Djibouti’s.

During the Biden administration, senior US officials, including the head of US Africa Command (Africom), visited Berbera, which has a 4km runway ironically built by the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

This was later identified by the US as an emergency landing site for space shuttles – interesting given Trump ally Elon Musk’s obsession with space.

In 2022 The US National Defense Authorization Act was amended to include Somaliland, enhancing security cooperation and potentially paving the way for stronger diplomatic and economic ties.

Republicans supporting recognition have presented Somaliland as a good business case, hoping to appeal to Trump’s deal-making approach. Project 2025 uses the term “hedge”.

A US-based Somaliland diplomat said: “It depends on how they sell it to him. They have to make it attractive; they must seduce him.’

Whether he means it or not, raising the explosive question of recognition is likely to please the destructive Trump.

It would certainly get him attention and he could brag about being the first.

It would also anger Somalia, a country he included in his reported 2018 list. of “hole” nations and a place where he wants to deport undocumented Somalis, failed asylum seekers and criminals.

There is already talk in Somaliland that the territory will be used as a “dumping ground” for such people in exchange for US recognition.

American academic Ken Menkhouse, who has followed Somalia’s problems for decades, brings much-needed balance to the debate.

“It is very likely that we will see significant changes in US policy towards Somaliland and Somalia,” he says.

“Mr. Trump is deeply suspicious of foreign aid, skeptical of nation-building and a neo-isolationist.

The Horn of Africa must prepare for change.

Mary Harper has written two books about Somalia, including Everything You Have Told Me Is True, a look at life under al-Shabaab.