Why the Oval Office map played a decisive role in Trump’s opinion on the war in Ukraine

Russia has occupied the fifth of Ukrainian territory – and a large map showing that the area, shaded in red, is placed in the oval office, as if to emphasize this point for the negotiations of President Donald Trump with Volodimir Zelenski on Monday.

“I guess you’ve all seen the card,” Trump told Fox News on Tuesday. “Much of the territory is taken and this territory is taken.”

The message from the White House to Ukraine is unmistakable. This land has gone and it is time to look at a territorial compromise with Vladimir Putin or, as some call it, swap for land.

The Zelenski team had brought his own map of the meeting and the Ukrainian leader said that he later “fought what is on this card” during his conversation with Trump about “who controls what – not through rumors, but in reality.”

Although he felt that he had made some progress on correcting any false impressions, Trump was the same. It was clear, he said that Russia’s forces were “so clearly much powerful and you know that it was not like they stopped.”

Asked what the feeling in the room with European leaders regarding the swaps on the ground, he said: “Now they are talking about Donbass, but Donbass is currently … 79% property and controlled by Russia.”

Read more: Tracking war in Ukraine with cards

Before the war began to the east in 2014, the wealthy mine region of Ukraine in Donbass made up about 16% of Ukraine’s economic production.

Putin has been reported to have told Trump that he wants the entire Donbass region as part of a broad peace deal.

This would surely save Russia leader a significant amount of blood and treasure.

Zelenski said he also argued about the percentages of the White House map, which show Russian control in a number of Ukrainian regions, ranging from 99% of Luhansk and 76% of Donetsk in Donbass; 73% of Zaporizhzia and Kherson southeast; 4% in Harciv to the northeast; and 1% in Sumy and Mykolaiv.

The analysis of the latest data from the US-based Institute of War has led to similar figures with the White House and all differences can be reduced to a different methodology, especially in terms of the degree of Russian control of an area. A part can be under limited control or simply claimed by Moscow.

In areas where the White House suggests that 1% of the region is under Russian control, which can only reflect that the Russians have some limited presence, as in Mikolaev to the south, or where they were largely repelled, as in sums north.

Whatever the true figure for Russian control in Donetsk, the fortress cities of Kramartk and the neighboring Slajansk in the Donetsk area are still home to a large population.

Local officials say that about 242,000 people live in Ukrainian -controlled regions of the Donetsk region, and no state leader would consider handing over his territory to Moscow.

Although in recent months the Russian forces have made progress, ISW estimates that seizure of the rest of the Donetsk region “will very likely take the Russian forces several years to complete after several difficult campaigns.”

Zelenski said the Ukrainian map, which has shown that Trump has managed to occupy less than 1% of Ukrainian territory in the last 1000 days.

Ukraine Deepstateua mapping group analysts have said they have been translated to 5,842 square km since November 2022.

While Russia achieved operational success in the first days of full -scale invasion, Deepstate indicates much of the occupied territory, then it was released.

However, Russia has made undeniable progress in the last two to three months, even if the broader front line has shifted a little from the first months of the war.

Defense Analyst Conrad Music, which runs Rochan Consulting, says the Russian advance has apparently accelerated in some parts of the East around Casansk in the Harciv and Kremina region in Luhansk.

“We see many more fires and Ukrainians are not really able to deploy firefighters to expose them,” he told the BBC.

Music cites a lack of Ukrainian labor to protect the long front line, but also the increased use of Russian drones aimed at soldiers, their equipment, and more specially their artillery.

In the meantime, Russia managed to hire 30-35,000 soldiers, and even with the heavy losses they received on the spot, they were able to build large operational and strategic reserve forces, he says.

But Russia’s quick profits in limited areas of the East have not been combined elsewhere.

An attempt at the Russian land grabbed 10-15 km in the Ukrainian-controlled territory near Dobropilia in the region was successfully led by the Ukrainian forces last week, according to the military leaders of Ukraine.

And although Russia holds some pockets of land in the regions of sums and Harkiv, Ukraine still controls approximately 6,600 square km Donbass.

Putin has not only claimed to be wide streams of Ukraine, he has already annex four regions, as well as Crimea, although many areas are out of his range.

The UK’s defense reconnaissance update has recently estimated that it is based only on “the gradual progress of Russia’s battlefield so far in 2025” will take another 4.4 years, just to seize the four regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, the hindness and Harson.

This alone explains the various perspectives of Trump and Zelenski when it comes to cards showing the front line 1200 km in Ukraine.

“Thank you for the card, by the way, it was great,” Zelenski told him, despite their differences, “I think how to get it back.”