Why Trump is directed to Brazil

A message from US President Donald Trump on Wednesday landed like a grenade in Brazil, leading to the connection between the two countries to all time.

Trump has promised to impose Brazil’s tariffs at up to 50%. He has accused the country of “attacks” of US technology companies and conducting a “witch hunt” against the far -right former President Jeir Bolsonaro, a long -time ally, who is prosecuted for his alleged role in plotting the Brazilian elections in 2022.

This move follows a new round of political sparring between Trump and current Brazilian President Luis Inasio Lula da Silva. In addition, she is a tense relationship that has already been tense.

Trump threatened the BRICS group members – of which Brazil is part – with tariffs, accusing those countries in anti -American positions.

The block includes India, Russia and China and has grown to include Iran. It is designed to balance the influence of the United States in the world.

Lula responded to Trump’s tariff threat in X’s publication, writes that “Brazil is a sovereign nation with independent institutions and will not take any form of tutelage.”

Trump has unleashed a widespread tariff program – or import tax – since he returned to service in January. He claims that they will strengthen our production and protect jobs, although he also used them to pursue political goals.

This seems to be true in the case of Brazil.

The Lula Government said it would answer – it probably means tariffs for American products. But it is unclear how this would happen or whether Brazil has the economic plan to face the effects of escalation.

Meanwhile, many Brazilians are wondering why Trump has headed for his country and how this new saga can be played.

Brazil is one of the relatively few countries that buys more than the United States than sells – a setting that theoretically meets Trump’s trade program.

Given this imbalance, the tariff threat was considered by many Brazilian analysts and politicians as a clear gesture of support for Jeir Bolsonaro, a former president.

This was emphasized by Trump’s letter, which categorically criticized the Brazilian government and the Bolsonaro’s ongoing process in the Supreme Court, which focused on an alleged coup attempt two years ago.

Some kind of help for Bolsonaro from Trump was already expected by Brazilian politicians – but not on this scale.

On January 8, 2023, hundreds of supporters of Bolsonaro stormed the Congress of Brazil, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace – in an obvious attempt to cancel the election won by the pipe several months earlier.

Bolsonaro denies any connection with this event, which was viewed by many as a Brazilian version of attacks on the US Capitol building by Trump’s supporters two years earlier. Trump was also investigated after the US rebellion – and condemned those who tried to chase him.

Bolsonaro’s supporters have demanded some Trump support for months. His son, Eduardo, took a vacation from Brazil’s congress, where he served as a representative, and moved to the United States. His goal was to gather support for his father from Trump’s inner circle and his wider Maga movement (Make America Great Again).

In another intervention, which is regarded as pro-Bolsonaro, Trump also accused the Brazilian government of “treacherous attacks against free elections and fundamental rights to free speech of Americans”, including the censorship of “Social Media Platforms in the United States.”

As part of a continued investigation into the spread of misinformation in the country, the Supreme Court of Brazil has ordered the blocking of several social media accounts in recent years – many of them belonging to Bolsonaro supporters.

Authorities and businesses of Brazil are fighting to calculate the economic impact of potential tariffs, but political consequences can also be huge.

The words used by Trump suggest that Bolsonaro has a political proximity to the US president, for whom a little Brazilian or Latin American politicians could dream.

This will be seen as powerful approval for Bolsonaro, who wants to run for president again – although it is forbidden to do so by 2030.

Bolsonaro’s supporters made political capital at tariffs, suggesting that the guilt was hiding firmly for the current president.

“Lula put the ideology to the economy and that is the result. Responsibility is made up of the authorities. The stories will not solve the problem,” said Sao Governor Paulo Tarchio de Faitiz, an unwavering ally.

Despite the obvious positive effects on Bolsonaro, some analysts and politicians say Trump’s gesture can cause fire for him.

The United States is Brazil’s second most important trading partner behind China.

And some of the sectors that could be most affected by a new circle of US tariffs are those that are closely aligned with the political base of Bolsonaro – especially agribusiness. Increasing concerns about the potential impact on Brazilian exports of oranges, coffee and beef in the United States.

Instead of playing in the hands of Bolsonaro, Trump’s tariff threat can serve as a pipe life line, which fights the reduction in the percentage of popularity and the difficulties in dealing with congress.

A poll published in May suggested that 55% of Brazilians did not approve of Trump. And a new wave of tariffs is unlikely to displace these moods.

Just after Trump’s announcement, Lula and other members of the Brazilian left reacted by playing a nationalist tune – talking about sovereignty and trying to blame Bolsonaro for the possible economic consequences of tariffs.

Even among centrist politicians, Trump’s threats are largely negative.

“No citizen, especially representatives elected by the people, cannot tolerate foreign aggression against Brazil, regardless of the alleged justification. It is time for true patriotism,” writes Alessandro Viera, a centrist senator who usually has a critical position against pipe.

Some analysts claim that this can generate the effect of a rally guide for a pipe in political disputes of Brazil.

“Even the pipe critics can see Trump’s course as an attack on national sovereignty and the independence of the judiciary,” says Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at the FGV Foundation (FGV) and a Carnegie Fund researcher for an international peace tube in Washington.

The Brazilian presidential election in October 2026 is still ceded, but some analysts are already making comparisons with Canada, where a right candidate lost this year to a more central opponent who has openly campaign against Trump.

Bolsonaro cannot run for president because of his Supreme Court’s sentence and the Allies are already challenging who will represent the Brazilian right to the ballot box.

In social media – where a large part of the political debate happens – the Memmas of the Bolsonaro Allies have been shared by thousands, often in the words of criticism. One of these shows the likely candidate Tarkchio wearing Trump Magi’s hat.

With his threat from tariffs, Trump has caused a potential storm not only in the economy of Brazil – but also his political future.